William Strauss
The Fourth Turning : What the Cycles of History Tell Us about America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny (Paperback)
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4.67 out of 5stars
(6 reviews)
Most helpful positive review
5.00 out of 5 stars review
Verified Purchaser
04/05/2010
I first read this book...
I first read this book in 1998. I took it off the shelf and read it again recently after listening to an interview with the author. It is eerie now to watch the cycle of history repeating much as the authors described. Highly recommended. Much of the book is still relevant today.
UnderMyAppleTree
Most helpful negative review
4.00 out of 5 stars review
Verified Purchaser
04/08/2018
Jeepers! Scared the be...
Jeepers! Scared the bejeezus out of me. This is a horror movie masquerading as a book. Written in 1997(!), coins the term millennials, predicts Trump and forecasts a third world war (but hopefully just a financial one) in the 2020s time frame. But don't worry, you have no place to hide and furthermore, you're guaranteed a front row seat to the show. Enjoy.
anandrajan
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4.00 out of 5 stars reviewVerified Purchaser04/08/2018Jeepers! Scared the be...Jeepers! Scared the bejeezus out of me. This is a horror movie masquerading as a book. Written in 1997(!), coins the term millennials, predicts Trump and forecasts a third world war (but hopefully just a financial one) in the 2020s time frame. But don't worry, you have no place to hide and furthermore, you're guaranteed a front row seat to the show. Enjoy.anandrajan
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5.00 out of 5 stars reviewVerified Purchaser01/11/2013In this exceptional bo...In this exceptional book the authors take a life-cycle view of human affairs that is analogous to the four seasons. A complete cycle repeats and runs through four quarters ; Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter with each season serving a purpose. Since working together in the mid 1980's they became convinced by evidence that human societies follow a cyclical generational pattern rather than one of unbroken linear growth. The evidence is that societies grow, reach a maturity, stagnate and decline, with their particular angle being that generations can be counted from a time of major crisis with four generations (human life cycles) needed to complete the full cycle. They show that "Ever Upwards", "Always More", "Always Better" are useful political slogans that really don´t apply to human affairs other than in a narrow technological sense. Societal awareness of its success/performance/happiness is not an arrow shooting ever upwards but rather an arrow that is shot upwards only to fall to earth and (usually) be fired again to follow a similar but different arc. In American terms they see the present cycle as starting with a post WWII "American High" (1946-1964)(Spring), followed by a "Consciousness Revolution" (1964-1984)(Summer) and "Culture Wars" (1984-2005?)(Autumn) with a Winter on the way that should cover the approximate period of 2005- 2025. As in nature, each season has its possibilities and they identify Crisis (Winter) as a time for societal survival, demanding a genuine gathering together in unselfish common action. Each generation interestingly defines itself in opposition to its childhood parents with "Boomer" children looking for societal order and stability rather than the splintering revolution that was forced onto them. Equally, they show each seasonality as having a dominant ethos that is almost impossible to resist, with the most interesting example probably being the capitulation of Conservatives under Reagan to "me first" individualism and personal freedom of a late stage Third Turning. As they say, "Ideals become Ideologies" and an institutionalized revolution turns into a special interests power grab under the cover of a revolutionary smoke screen, i.e. Woodstock to Animal Farm with some revolutionaries being more equal than others.Miro
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5.00 out of 5 stars reviewVerified Purchaser06/04/2010I approached this book...I approached this book initially very skeptically. My previous experience with "prophecy" was, as I vaguely recall, a book called "The Great Depression of the 1990's" or something like that. But the authors make a convincing case first, that each generation (they define generations in terms of contemporaries or cohorts) really does have a different character, and second, that this generational intermix would produce a major crisis in the U. S. sometime in the period 2005 - 2025. A social crisis is not when things, even bad things, happen to us. It is a crisis because of our reaction. Consider a catalog of the most recent crises: Bill Clinton's impeachment, Watergate, the Vietnam War, Iran-Contra, or even September 11. These are not the kind of crises we are looking for, because they didn't fundamentally change everything in the way that the American Revolution, the American Civil War, and the Great Depression and Second World War did.At the time of September 11, I didn't think that this event presaged the "Fourth Turning," and I still think this is the wrong event. I think that a future historian trying to follow Strauss and Howe's method will probably date this from 2005 (Katrina and peak oil?), 2008 (oil price spike and economic meltdown?), or 2010 (some new crisis).KeithAkers
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5.00 out of 5 stars reviewVerified Purchaser04/05/2010I first read this book...I first read this book in 1998. I took it off the shelf and read it again recently after listening to an interview with the author. It is eerie now to watch the cycle of history repeating much as the authors described. Highly recommended. Much of the book is still relevant today.UnderMyAppleTree
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4.00 out of 5 stars reviewVerified Purchaser03/24/2009Once you orient yourse...Once you orient yourself in history, you recognize yourself and those around you, and where you stand as we approach (or are already in) the Fourth Turning. It is interesting to note that the book was written in the mid-1990s, and its prognostications have been very accurate.chilee
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5.00 out of 5 stars reviewVerified Purchaser06/13/2006Two books are essentia...Two books are essential reading for those who wish to understand the theory of historical seasons and generational cycles. This theory is explained in the books The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (Broadway Books) and Generations : The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (William Morrow and Co.), both by William Strauss and Neil Howe. The Short Cycle Strauss and Howe's writings concern short cycles in history. A short cycle or "saeculum" is a season of life that lasts 80 to 100 years. Within each cycle are four identifiable seasons dominated by one of four generational types: Civic, adaptive, idealist and reactive generations. In the 20th Century, these are known familiarly as the GI Generation (born between 1901 and 1924), the Silent Generation (1925-1942), Baby Boomers (1943-1960), Generation X (1961-1981) and the Millennials (the new civics, born after 1981. Also known as Generation Y).JamesT